What the BoC’s October Rate Decision Could Mean for Your Mortgage

How to Prepare for the Bank of Canada’s October 29, 2025 Rate Announcement

The next Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement is set for October 29, 2025, and all eyes are on what comes next. With trade tensions simmering, economic growth slowing, and inflation trends in flux, this decision could shape how Canadians borrow, renew, or refinance their mortgages through the end of the year.

Why This Decision Matters for Canadian Homeowners

Markets are already pricing in a 48–52% chance of a rate cut, according to analysts at True North Mortgage. But that’s far from guaranteed. The BoC is walking a fine line between supporting economic growth and keeping inflation under control. Even a small rate shift could ripple through the mortgage market, changing affordability, borrowing costs, and confidence for homebuyers.

What Economic Signals the BoC Is Watching

To understand what might happen on October 29, it helps to know what the BoC is monitoring:

• Inflation: After dropping below 2%, inflation remains stable but sensitive to global supply and energy shifts.

• Employment data: Job growth has cooled, with more Canadians moving into part-time roles.

• GDP: Canada’s GDP growth slowed in Q3, suggesting economic momentum is easing.

• Global trade: Tensions with the U.S. and new tariffs are adding pressure on exports and manufacturing.

If inflation stays low and growth softens further, a 25-basis-point rate cut could be on the table. If not, the Bank may hold steady to evaluate year-end data.

What a Rate Cut or Hold Means for You

• If the BoC cuts by 0.25%: Variable-rate borrowers could see immediate relief, with lower monthly payments. Fixed rates might also edge down slightly as bond yields adjust.

• If rates hold steady: Expect more of the same—stability, but continued caution. It’s a sign the BoC is waiting for clearer economic signals.

• If rates rise: While less likely, this scenario could occur if inflation unexpectedly rebounds. Borrowers would see higher variable payments and tighter budgets.

How This Impacts Different Borrowers

• Variable-rate borrowers: Watch closely. Even a small move can change your interest cost by hundreds annually. Stay in touch with your broker to review adjustments.

• Fixed-rate renewals: If you’re renewing soon, don’t wait until the announcement. Locking in now could protect you from potential market volatility.

• New buyers: Rate uncertainty can affect affordability. Get pre-approved to secure your rate for 90–120 days while maintaining flexibility if cuts happen.

Tips for Timing Your Mortgage Decision

• Check your renewal window: You can renew up to 6 months early without penalty.

• Compare lenders now: We have access to multiple institutions that may offer better rates before the market reacts.

• Stay informed: Follow credible mortgage updates and don’t rely solely on headlines—every borrower’s situation is unique.

Why Work with a Mortgage Broker Now

A broker can model both best- and worst-case scenarios for your situation—showing exactly how a 0.25% cut, hold, or hike would impact your payments, amortization, and long-term savings.

At Arise Mortgage, we stay ahead of BoC announcements so you can make informed decisions—whether you’re renewing, refinancing, or purchasing your next home.